NFL injury report: who might sit, and who gains if they do
Chance of missing: Frozen availability model (2026 blind test), prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage shift: Frozen usage-redistribution model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Status: nflverse injury report data (CC-BY-4.0), retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage impact: Share: nflverse player stats (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points). Role impact: Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Chance of missing the next game, and who takes on the work.
Injury Intelligence. Performance Insight.
Updated Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET · model v0 (frozen) · nflverse data
Who gains
167 players with meaningful usage · sorted by chance of missing
Impact scores are small points on a fixed scale: his share of team usage (or role weight) times his chance of missing. High means the top 5% of 2017–2021 player-seasons, Medium the top 20%. The bold High badge appears only when a score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%: 32 of 167 listed players this update.
Showing 167 of 551 players with meaningful usage (at least 10% of team targets+carries, or QB pass attempts) or role weight (at least the historical starter median, 18), ordered by the larger impact; capped at 160 plus all teammate-scenario players.
Descriptive only: how much of the team offense runs through this player, times the chance he misses. It is not a prediction of game results: when we tested whether team availability predicts game outcomes, it did not hold up.
Descriptive only: snap share, starter status, and how big the drop-off to the next man up looks, times the chance he misses. It is not a prediction of game results: offensive-line availability did not improve our predictions, and team availability did not hold up as a predictor of game outcomes.
Each impact line leads with what happens if he sits; the small number is the score on a fixed scale set from 2017-2021 seasons (High = top 5% historically, Medium = top 20%; lower shows as "Not a key role"). The bold High badge needs High and at least a 25% chance of missing. Hover or focus ⓘ for each player's math.
T.J. Hockenson
If he sits, about 10% of the Minnesota Vikings offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Minnesota Vikings replace a starter who plays 56% of offense snaps; his backup Gavin Bartholomew has played 31% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 75% or more → Bench or hold. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 108 of 108 TEs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 84%) × typical 6.4 PPR, a simple expected value.
TE
MIN · Minnesota Vikings
84%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Bench or hold
Tier: Sit · 1.1 risk-adjusted PPR
Report: not on this week's report yet · MIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report; played 3% of snaps in Week 5 after 83% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts)
Traded DET → HOU on 2026-03-02 (nflverse trades, trade 2042); on the DET roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the HOU roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Estimate covers Week 7 (Oct 25): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, about 19% of the Houston Texans offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 66 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 66%) × typical 7.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
HOU · Houston Texans Traded
66%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 2.4 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the HOU roster in 2025 (last listed Week 20) and the CLE roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Cleveland Browns replace a starter who plays 84% of offense snaps; his backup Luke Wypler has played 32% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
CLE · Cleveland Browns New team
63%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 51% of snaps vs 99% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 51% of the Washington Commanders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 49 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 63%) × typical 7.5 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
WAS · Washington Commanders
63%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 2.8 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the NE roster in 2025 (last listed Week 22) and the WAS roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 13% of the Washington Commanders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Washington Commanders replace a starter who plays 43% of offense snaps; his backup Dyami Brown has played 41% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 91 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 62%) × typical 9.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
WAS · Washington Commanders New team
62%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 3.8 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 21% of the Philadelphia Eagles offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 62 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 61%) × typical 6.9 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
61%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 2.7 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 82% of the Baltimore Ravens offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Baltimore Ravens replace a starter who plays 48% of offense snaps; his backup Tyler Huntley has played 52% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 41 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 60%) × typical 15.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
BAL · Baltimore Ravens
60%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 6.0 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 52% of snaps vs 100% average in the 4 games before the injury
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 27% of the Chicago Bears offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 59 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 60%) × typical 7.4 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
CHI · Chicago Bears
60%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 3.0 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 92% of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers replace a starter who plays 32% of offense snaps; his backup Jalon Daniels has played 68% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 45 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 56%) × typical 10.5 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
TB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
56%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 4.7 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 508 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 878 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 12% of the Kansas City Chiefs offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Kansas City Chiefs replace a starter who plays 57% of offense snaps; his backup Cyrus Allen has played 5% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 67 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 53%) × typical 10.4 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
KC · Kansas City Chiefs
53%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 4.9 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 4 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 62% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 10% of snaps vs 79% average in the 4 games before the injury
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 870 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 1,804 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 18% of the Philadelphia Eagles offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Philadelphia Eagles replace a starter who plays 29% of offense snaps; his backup Darius Cooper has played 65% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 78 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 53%) × typical 9.6 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
53%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Have a backup ready
Tier: Sit · 4.6 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 50% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers replace a starter who plays 64% of defense snaps; his backup Keionte Scott has played 59% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
TB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
52%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New York Giants replace a starter who plays 80% of offense snaps; his backup Bryan Hudson has played 71% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
NYG · New York Giants
51%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
If he sits, the Miami Dolphins replace a starter who plays 73% of offense snaps; his backup Jarrett Kingston has played 27% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
MIA · Miami Dolphins
50%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Report: not on this week's report yet · MIA had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report; played 27% of snaps in Week 5 after 100% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 870 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 1,804 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Philadelphia Eagles replace a starter who plays 64% of offense snaps; his backup Willie Lampkin has played 37% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
50%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 50% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,088 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 1,899 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Tennessee Titans replace a starter who plays 65% of defense snaps; his backup Marcus Harris has played 55% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
TEN · Tennessee Titans
49%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 10% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Chicago Bears replace a starter who plays 73% of defense snaps; his backup Noah Sewell has played 15% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
LB
CHI · Chicago Bears
47%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 11% of the Philadelphia Eagles offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 25%–50%; limited or no practice; typical points in the bottom half of RBs → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 79 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 47%) × typical 3.7 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
47%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 2.0 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the NYG roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the TEN roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 3,801 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 7,341 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Tennessee Titans replace a starter who plays 82% of defense snaps; his backup Marcus Harris has played 55% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
TEN · Tennessee Titans New team
45%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 8% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 870 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 1,804 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Carolina Panthers replace a starter who plays 56% of offense snaps; his backup Corey Bullock has played 45% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
CAR · Carolina Panthers
45%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 4 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 50% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New England Patriots replace a starter who plays 78% of offense snaps; his backup Caleb Lomu has played 44% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
NE · New England Patriots
42%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Los Angeles Chargers replace a starter who plays 46% of offense snaps; his backup Kayode Awosika has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
LAC · Los Angeles Chargers
39%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Buffalo Bills replace a starter who plays 75% of offense snaps; his backup Lloyd Cushenberry III has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
BUF · Buffalo Bills
38%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 10% of the New York Jets offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 25%–50%; limited or no practice; returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 39 of 108 TEs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 36%) × typical 5.7 PPR, a simple expected value.
TE
NYJ · New York Jets
36%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 3.6 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 19% of snaps vs 45% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 475 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 885 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Carolina Panthers replace a starter who plays 88% of offense snaps; his backup Corey Bullock has played 45% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
CAR · Carolina Panthers
36%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 4 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 25% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 64% of snaps vs 97% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 10% of the Cleveland Browns offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Cleveland Browns replace a starter who plays 64% of offense snaps; his backup Isaiah Bond has played 30% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 25%–50%; limited or no practice; returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 87 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 36%) × typical 6.2 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
CLE · Cleveland Browns
36%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 3.9 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,389 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,957 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 17% of the New Orleans Saints offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing 25%–50%; limited or no practice; returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 50 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 26%) × typical 5.9 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
NO · New Orleans Saints
26%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 4.4 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 17% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 27% of snaps vs 33% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
New team: on the TB roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the DET roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
If he sits, the Detroit Lions replace a starter who plays 64% of defense snaps; his backup Ennis Rakestraw Jr. has played 42% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
DET · Detroit Lions New team
25%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Report: not on this week's report yet · DET had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report; played 0% of snaps in Week 5 after 97% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,356 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,469 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 11% of the Carolina Panthers offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 32 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 24%) × typical 10.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
CAR · Carolina Panthers
24%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Flex/borderline · 8.2 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 4 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 9% of games (2022–25).
If he sits, about 14% of the Minnesota Vikings offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: no fantasy range to rank → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
WR
MIN · Minnesota Vikings
21%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Report: not on this week's report yet · Week 5 report: Questionable, Limited practice (Hamstring); inactive in Week 5 (nflverse roster); MIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Usage impact ⓘ3.1 · Medium
Role impact ⓘn/a · not on the active roster in his team's latest roster week (Week 5: INA)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Philadelphia Eagles replace a starter who plays 92% of offense snaps; his backup Willie Lampkin has played 37% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
19%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,088 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 1,899 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 33% of the Las Vegas Raiders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Las Vegas Raiders replace a starter who plays 69% of offense snaps; his backup Connor Heyward has played 24% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 13 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 18%) × typical 15.4 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
LV · Las Vegas Raiders
18%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Start · 12.7 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 10% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 53% of snaps vs 80% average in the 4 games before the injury
If he sits, the Miami Dolphins replace a starter who plays 90% of defense snaps; his backup Chop Robinson has played 63% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
LB
MIA · Miami Dolphins
17%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Report: not on this week's report yet · MIA had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report; played 69% of snaps in Week 5 after 100% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts)
Traded CHI → BUF on 2026-03-05 (nflverse trades, trade 2044); on the CHI roster in 2025 (last listed Week 20) and the BUF roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 403 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 671 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 12% of the Buffalo Bills offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Buffalo Bills replace a starter who plays 34% of offense snaps; his backup Josh Palmer has played 30% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: limited or no practice; returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 64 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 17%) × typical 6.1 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
BUF · Buffalo Bills Traded
17%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 5.0 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 39% of snaps vs 57% average in the 4 games before the injury
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 18% of the Dallas Cowboys offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Dallas Cowboys replace a starter who plays 76% of offense snaps; his backup Jonathan Mingo has played 18% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 21 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 16%) × typical 12.4 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
DAL · Dallas Cowboys
16%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Start · 10.4 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 57% of snaps vs 81% average in the 4 games before the injury
If he sits, about 15% of the New Orleans Saints offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of RBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 54 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 16%) × typical 4.7 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 16% of the New England Patriots offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: limited or no practice; returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 37 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 13%) × typical 7.2 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
NE · New England Patriots
13%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 6.3 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
If he sits, about 7% of the Detroit Lions offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Detroit Lions replace a starter who plays 57% of offense snaps; his backup Tay Martin has played 2% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 61 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 11%) × typical 5.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
DET · Detroit Lions
11%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Sit · 5.2 risk-adjusted PPR
Report: not on this week's report yet · DET had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report; played 39% of snaps in Week 5 after 82% in Week 4 (nflverse snap counts)
New team: on the WAS roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the SF roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 10% of the San Francisco 49ers offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the San Francisco 49ers replace a starter who plays 62% of offense snaps; his backup Jordan Watkins has played 34% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: limited or no practice → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 42 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 10%) × typical 8.4 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
SF · San Francisco 49ers New team
10%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 7.5 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Indianapolis Colts replace a starter who plays 98% of offense snaps; his backup Luke Tenuta has played 10% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
IND · Indianapolis Colts
10%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,389 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,957 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 79% of defense snaps; his backup Montaric Brown has played 19% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars
10%chance of missing Week 8 game (Nov 1)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 17% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 66% of snaps vs 70% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,389 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,957 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 51% of defense snaps; his backup Montaric Brown has played 19% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars
10%chance of missing Week 8 game (Nov 1)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 17% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
If he sits, about 23% of the Los Angeles Chargers offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of RBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 31 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 10%) × typical 8.3 PPR, a simple expected value.
If he sits, about 100% of the New York Giants offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the New York Giants replace a starter who plays 98% of offense snaps; his backup J.J. McCarthy has played 2% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 27 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 9%) × typical 14.2 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 3,801 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 7,341 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Dallas Cowboys replace a starter who plays 96% of offense snaps; his backup Tyler Smith has played 28% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
DAL · Dallas Cowboys
9%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 8% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New Orleans Saints replace a starter who plays 41% of defense snaps; his backup Khristian Boyd has played 45% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DL
NO · New Orleans Saints
8%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
If he sits, about 15% of the Cincinnati Bengals offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Cincinnati Bengals replace a starter who plays 80% of offense snaps; his backup Mitchell Tinsley has played 27% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 16 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 8%) × typical 12.2 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
CIN · Cincinnati Bengals
8%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Start · 11.2 risk-adjusted PPR
Report: not on this week's report yet · Week 5 report: Questionable (Groin); CIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
New team: on the LAC roster in 2025 (last listed Week 19) and the IND roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Coming back: he played his team's latest game after missing the one before while on the injury report. Of 1,811 such returns in 2022–2025, 36.3% missed a game within the next 4 team games, vs 21.6% of 24,892 regular players with no listing or miss in the 4 games before. This describes the group, not him; per-injury-type rates are not shown because they added nothing in the held-out test. Source: our held-out research on nflverse data.
If he sits, about 14% of the Indianapolis Colts offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Indianapolis Colts replace a starter who plays 40% of offense snaps; his backup Deion Burks has played 15% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 50 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 8%) × typical 6.7 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
IND · Indianapolis Colts New team
8%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Sit · 6.1 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
Players coming back from an injury missed a game in the next 4 weeks 36% of the time vs 22% for others (2022–2025).
Returning from injury · last game 45% of snaps vs 64% average in the 4 games before the injury
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Atlanta Falcons replace a starter who plays 78% of defense snaps; his backup Avieon Terrell has played 43% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
ATL · Atlanta Falcons
8%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the SF roster in 2025 (last listed Week 20) and the MIN roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
If he sits, the Minnesota Vikings replace a starter who plays 82% of offense snaps; his backup Myles Price has played 13% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 48 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 8%) × typical 6.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
MIN · Minnesota Vikings New team
8%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Sit · 6.3 risk-adjusted PPR
Report: not on this week's report yet · MIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
New team: on the ATL roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the LV roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
If he sits, about 93% of the Las Vegas Raiders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Las Vegas Raiders replace a starter who plays 95% of offense snaps; his backup Fernando Mendoza has played 5% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 19 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 7%) × typical 15.6 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,389 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,957 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Pittsburgh Steelers replace a starter who plays 99% of defense snaps; his backup Daylen Everette has played 76% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
PIT · Pittsburgh Steelers
7%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 17% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 100% of snaps vs 100% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Estimate covers Week 7 (Oct 25): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Houston Texans replace a starter who plays 97% of defense snaps; his backup Jamal Hill has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
LB
HOU · Houston Texans
7%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,088 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 1,899 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Estimate covers Week 7 (Oct 25): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Houston Texans replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Wyatt Teller has played 35% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
HOU · Houston Texans
7%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 10% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the MIN roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the GB roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 403 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 671 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Green Bay Packers replace a starter who plays 46% of defense snaps; his backup Jonathan Ford has played 29% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DL
GB · Green Bay Packers New team
7%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the CHI roster in 2025 (last listed Week 20) and the NE roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New England Patriots replace a starter who plays 100% of defense snaps; his backup Carlton Davis III has played 67% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
NE · New England Patriots New team
7%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
If he sits, the Kansas City Chiefs replace a starter who plays 82% of offense snaps; his backup Cyrus Allen has played 5% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 51 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 6%) × typical 6.5 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 508 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 878 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 25% of the Washington Commanders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: limited or no practice → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 32 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 6%) × typical 7.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
WAS · Washington Commanders
6%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Flex/borderline · 7.3 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 62% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Green Bay Packers replace a starter who plays 96% of defense snaps; his backup Javon Bullard has played 78% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
GB · Green Bay Packers
6%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Indianapolis Colts replace a starter who plays 99% of defense snaps; his backup Justin Walley has played 68% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
IND · Indianapolis Colts
6%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Los Angeles Chargers replace a starter who plays 57% of defense snaps; his backup Nick Barrett has played 26% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DL
LAC · Los Angeles Chargers
5%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 37% of snaps vs 63% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
New team: on the PHI roster in 2025 (last listed Week 19) and the CAR roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Carolina Panthers replace a starter who plays 70% of defense snaps; his backup Princely Umanmielen has played 48% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
LB
CAR · Carolina Panthers New team
5%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 4 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 50% of offense snaps; his backup Josh Cameron has played 34% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 70 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 5%) × typical 5.1 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,955 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,597 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Wyatt Milum has played 4% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars
5%chance of missing Week 8 game (Nov 1)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 27% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,356 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,469 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Baltimore Ravens replace a starter who plays 68% of offense snaps; his backup Carson Vinson has played 35% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
BAL · Baltimore Ravens
5%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 9% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,356 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,469 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Green Bay Packers replace a starter who plays 67% of defense snaps; his backup Dani Dennis-Sutton has played 47% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
LB
GB · Green Bay Packers
4%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 9% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 475 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 885 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Cleveland Browns replace a starter who plays 99% of defense snaps; his backup Myles Harden has played 63% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
CLE · Cleveland Browns
4%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 25% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 100% of snaps vs 100% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Estimate covers Week 7 (Oct 25): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, about 100% of the Houston Texans offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Houston Texans replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Davis Mills has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 17 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 4%) × typical 15.7 PPR, a simple expected value.
New team: on the TEN roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the KC roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 475 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 885 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Kansas City Chiefs replace a starter who plays 74% of defense snaps; his backup Mansoor Delane has played 68% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
KC · Kansas City Chiefs New team
4%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 4 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 25% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 75% of snaps vs 79% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,389 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,957 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New England Patriots replace a starter who plays 91% of offense snaps; his backup Caleb Lomu has played 44% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
NE · New England Patriots
4%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 17% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 100% of snaps vs 87% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 83% of offense snaps; his backup Josh Cameron has played 34% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 31 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 4%) × typical 8.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 36% of the Indianapolis Colts offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Indianapolis Colts replace a starter who plays 76% of offense snaps; his backup Seth McGowan has played 24% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: returning-from-injury flag → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 10 of 107 RBs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 15.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
RB
IND · Indianapolis Colts
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Start · 14.5 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 73% of snaps vs 89% average in the 4 games before the injury
Traded IND → GB on 2026-03-07 (nflverse trades, trade 2047); on the IND roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the GB roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
If he sits, the Green Bay Packers replace a starter who plays 98% of defense snaps; his backup Dani Dennis-Sutton has played 47% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 475 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 885 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 98% of offense snaps; his backup Wyatt Milum has played 4% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
JAX · Jacksonville Jaguars
3%chance of missing Week 8 game (Nov 1)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 25% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 100% of snaps vs 86% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
If he sits, the Los Angeles Rams replace a starter who plays 84% of offense snaps; his backup Jordan Whittington has played 29% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 8 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 14.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Arizona Cardinals replace a starter who plays 99% of defense snaps; his backup Wydett Williams Jr. has played 52% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
ARI · Arizona Cardinals
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the PIT roster in 2025 (last listed Week 19) and the ARI roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Arizona Cardinals replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Josh Fryar has played 2% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
ARI · Arizona Cardinals New team
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the CHI roster in 2025 (last listed Week 20) and the BUF roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 3,801 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 7,341 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Buffalo Bills replace a starter who plays 98% of defense snaps; his backup Davison Igbinosun has played 77% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
DB
BUF · Buffalo Bills New team
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 8% of games (2022–25).
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 82% of offense snaps; his backup Nate Boerkircher has played 43% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of TEs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 9 of 108 TEs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 10.1 PPR, a simple expected value.
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 81% of offense snaps; his backup Josh Cameron has played 34% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 5 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 15.5 PPR, a simple expected value.
If he sits, the New York Giants replace a starter who plays 82% of offense snaps; his backup Charlie Jones has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 20 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 11.1 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 508 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 878 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Chicago Bears replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Luke Newman has played 1% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
CHI · Chicago Bears
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 62% of games (2022–25).
If he sits, about 67% of the Baltimore Ravens offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 31 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 11.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 3,801 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 7,341 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 96% of the Atlanta Falcons offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Atlanta Falcons replace a starter who plays 98% of offense snaps; his backup Cooper Rush has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 25 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 13.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
ATL · Atlanta Falcons
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Sit · 13.4 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 8% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 100% of the Kansas City Chiefs offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Kansas City Chiefs replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Justin Fields has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 9 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 16.9 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
KC · Kansas City Chiefs
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Start · 16.5 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 4 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,389 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 2,957 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New England Patriots replace a starter who plays 99% of defense snaps; his backup Gabe Jacas has played 67% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
LB
NE · New England Patriots
3%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Limited in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 17% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury · last game 100% of snaps vs 98% average in the 4 games before the injury · limited in practice
New team: on the ARI roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the MIN roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
If he sits, about 100% of the Minnesota Vikings offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Minnesota Vikings replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Carson Wentz has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 24 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 13.9 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
MIN · Minnesota Vikings New team
3%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Sit · 13.5 risk-adjusted PPR
Report: not on this week's report yet · MIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
If he sits, about 100% of the Green Bay Packers offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Green Bay Packers replace a starter who plays 99% of offense snaps; his backup Tyrod Taylor has played 1% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 13 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3%) × typical 16.3 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 3,801 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 7,341 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Denver Broncos replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Alex Palczewski has played 5% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
DEN · Denver Broncos
2%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 8% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 508 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 878 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New York Giants replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Bryan Hudson has played 71% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
NYG · New York Giants
2%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 62% of games (2022–25).
New team: on the KC roster in 2025 (last listed Week 18) and the ATL roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,015 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,952 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Atlanta Falcons replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Michael Jerrell has played 26% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
ATL · Atlanta Falcons New team
2%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 75% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 3,801 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 7,341 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the Baltimore Ravens replace a starter who plays 99% of offense snaps; his backup Carson Vinson has played 35% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
OL
BAL · Baltimore Ravens
2%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Not a typical fantasy start
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): not on the report in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 8% of games (2022–25).
If he sits, about 100% of the Seattle Seahawks offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Seattle Seahawks replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Drew Lock has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 30 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 12.7 PPR, a simple expected value.
If he sits, about 100% of the Cincinnati Bengals offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Cincinnati Bengals replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Joe Flacco has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 6 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 17.6 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
CIN · Cincinnati Bengals
2%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Start · 17.3 risk-adjusted PPR
Report: not on this week's report yet · CIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
Coming back: he played his team's latest game after missing the one before while on the injury report. Of 1,811 such returns in 2022–2025, 36.3% missed a game within the next 4 team games, vs 21.6% of 24,892 regular players with no listing or miss in the 4 games before. This describes the group, not him; per-injury-type rates are not shown because they added nothing in the held-out test. Source: our held-out research on nflverse data.
If he sits, about 100% of the Washington Commanders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 14 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 16.1 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
WAS · Washington Commanders
2%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Flex/borderline · 15.8 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
Players coming back from an injury missed a game in the next 4 weeks 36% of the time vs 22% for others (2022–2025).
If he sits, the New Orleans Saints replace a starter who plays 90% of offense snaps; his backup Barion Brown has played 2% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of WRs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 13 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 11.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 508 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 878 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, the New Orleans Saints replace a starter who plays 87% of offense snaps; his backup Barion Brown has played 2% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: limited or no practice → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 3 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 17.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
WR
NO · New Orleans Saints
2%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Start · 16.6 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 62% of games (2022–25).
Estimate covers Week 8 (Nov 1): his Week 6 game (Oct 18) kicks off before this week's estimate cutoff.
If he sits, about 100% of the Jacksonville Jaguars offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Jacksonville Jaguars replace a starter who plays 98% of offense snaps; his backup Quinn Ewers has played 2% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 5 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 17.8 PPR, a simple expected value.
If he sits, about 100% of the Detroit Lions offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Detroit Lions replace a starter who plays 99% of offense snaps; his backup Joshua Dobbs has played 1% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 4 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 18.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
DET · Detroit Lions
2%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Start · 17.7 risk-adjusted PPR
Report: not on this week's report yet · DET had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
If he sits, about 99% of the Cleveland Browns offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Cleveland Browns replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Shedeur Sanders has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Sit (No. 23 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2%) × typical 14.1 PPR, a simple expected value.
If he sits, about 100% of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Pittsburgh Steelers replace a starter who plays 99% of offense snaps; his backup Mason Rudolph has played 1% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 15 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1%) × typical 16.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 2,519 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 5,523 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 94% of the New England Patriots offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the New England Patriots replace a starter who plays 94% of offense snaps; his backup Tommy DeVito has played 6% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Start (No. 2 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1%) × typical 19.0 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
NE · New England Patriots
1%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start
Tier: Start · 18.7 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → Full in Week 6; similar players missed 5% of games (2022–25).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 508 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 878 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 99% of the Philadelphia Eagles offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Philadelphia Eagles replace a starter who plays 98% of offense snaps; his backup Tanner McKee has played 0% over the same games.
Model, injury-report and snap sources with retrieval times: see card sources.
Lineup call: Rule that fired: limited or no practice → Start with caution. A simple rule, not a model.
Tier: Flex/borderline (No. 16 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1%) × typical 15.4 PPR, a simple expected value.
QB
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
1%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup call: Start with caution
Tier: Flex/borderline · 15.2 risk-adjusted PPR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): Full in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 62% of games (2022–25).
No change of 2+ points in any chance-of-missing estimate across 17 updates.
Source: frozen availability model
Alex Singleton (DEN): chance of missing 3% → 1%
Source: frozen availability model
Leonard Williams (SEA): chance of missing 5% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Dante Fowler Jr. (SEA): chance of missing 9% → 6%
Source: frozen availability model
D.J. Jones (DEN): chance of missing 6% → 4%
Source: frozen availability model
Garett Bolles (DEN): chance of missing 6% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Evan Engram (DEN): chance of missing 7% → 4%
Source: frozen availability model
Mike McGlinchey (DEN): chance of missing 4% → 1%
Source: frozen availability model
Ben Powers (DEN): chance of missing 8% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
J.K. Dobbins (DEN): chance of missing 5% → 3%
Source: frozen availability model
Brandon Jones (DEN): chance of missing 7% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Jaylen Waddle (DEN): chance of missing 8% → 3%
Source: frozen availability model
Ernest Jones (SEA): chance of missing 8% → 3%
Source: frozen availability model
Quinn Meinerz (DEN): chance of missing 3% → 1%
Source: frozen availability model
Josh Jobe (SEA): chance of missing 8% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Luke Wattenberg (DEN): chance of missing 5% → 1%
Source: frozen availability model
Rodney Thomas (SEA): chance of missing 28% → 9%
Source: frozen availability model
Tycen Anderson (DEN): chance of missing 5% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Brady Russell (SEA): chance of missing 5% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA): chance of missing 7% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Riley Moss (DEN): chance of missing 49% → 46%
Source: frozen availability model
Nate Adkins (DEN): chance of missing 7% → 3%
Source: frozen availability model
Derick Hall (SEA): chance of missing 10% → 4%
Source: frozen availability model
Devon Witherspoon (SEA): chance of missing 6% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
George Holani (SEA): chance of missing 8% → 5%
Source: frozen availability model
Bo Nix (DEN): chance of missing 5% → 1%
Source: frozen availability model
AJ Barner (SEA): chance of missing 6% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Nehemiah Pritchett (SEA): chance of missing 7% → 4%
Source: frozen availability model
Jonah Elliss (DEN): chance of missing 6% → 3%
Source: frozen availability model
Tyrice Knight (SEA): chance of missing 5% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Jalen Sundell (SEA): chance of missing 4% → 1%
Source: frozen availability model
Que Robinson (DEN): chance of missing 5% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Karene Reid (DEN): chance of missing 6% → 3%
Source: frozen availability model
Jordan Turner (DEN): chance of missing 5% → 2%
Source: frozen availability model
Grey Zabel (SEA): chance of missing 4% → 1%
Source: frozen availability model
Elijah Arroyo (SEA): chance of missing 6% → 4%
Source: frozen availability model
Isaac Seumalo (ARI): report now Full Participation in Practice
Source: nflverse injury report (CC-BY-4.0)
Budda Baker (ARI): report now Full Participation in Practice
Source: nflverse injury report (CC-BY-4.0)
Josh Sweat (ARI): report now Full Participation in Practice
Source: nflverse injury report (CC-BY-4.0)
Za'Darius Smith (ATL): report now Did Not Participate In Practice
Source: nflverse injury report (CC-BY-4.0)
Jawaan Taylor (ATL): report now Did Not Participate In Practice
Source: nflverse injury report (CC-BY-4.0)
Prediction log
Estimates logged239,155
Graded3,143
3,143 estimates graded so far. Every estimate is time-stamped before the games and stored append-only; see the weekly scorecard below.
Model
Logged
Graded
H1A6_hgb_next_game@availability-v0
33,060
0
R1_median@ranges-v0
4,219
64
R1_mse@ranges-v0
4,219
64
R2_ppr@ranges-v0
24,063
672
R2_ppr_cutoff@ranges-cutoff-v1
15,852
3
R2_yards@ranges-v0
24,063
672
R2_yards_cutoff@ranges-cutoff-v1
15,852
3
R3_carry_share@ranges-v0
95
0
R3_snap_share_off@ranges-v0
787
0
R3_target_share@ranges-v0
2,165
0
U_def_sacks@units-v0
28,902
423
U_def_snaps@units-v0
28,902
423
U_def_tackles@units-v0
28,902
423
U_ol_snaps@units-v0
9,876
144
U_qb_pass_yds@units-v0
2,646
36
U_rb_touches@units-v0
4,512
63
U_rec@units-v0
11,040
153
Weekly scorecard
Logged counts every estimate in every update. Snap share adds its two model variants, which score the same players, and ranges add fantasy points and yards. Prediction log grading run Oct 16, 2026 04:24 PM ET; outcomes data Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.
No weekly grades yet. The first scorecard appears after the first week with logged estimates is complete.
Team contribution ranges
Model version v0: the frozen blind-test model (trained through the 2025 season; no weekly update has replaced it yet). The live model can change weekly only if it beats the current one on held-out recent weeks. The blind-test results for the frozen models are reported separately and are never mixed with live-model numbers.
Contribution-unit grades appear here once their first week is graded.
Likely range
Top 48 QB/RB/WR/TE by mid estimate (sorted high to low).
This week’s likely range: each curve shows where a player’s fantasy points (PPR) usually land in the game named on his chart, if he plays; not a single prediction. These range curves have no 2026 grades yet; graded estimates for other models are on the Prediction log tab.
SFSan Francisco 49ersBrock Purdy
Most weeks, Brock Purdy scores between 8.9 and 29.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 20.4. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 20.4 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 19)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 20.1PPR points · typical if he plays 20.4
NENew England PatriotsDrake Maye
Most weeks, Drake Maye scores between 8.5 and 29.7 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 19.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 19.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 18.7PPR points · typical if he plays 19.0
Most weeks, Puka Nacua scores between 7.0 and 30.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 18.4. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 18.4 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (6.3, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 18.0PPR points · typical if he plays 18.4
ATLAtlanta FalconsBijan Robinson
Most weeks, Bijan Robinson scores between 7.7 and 29.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 18.3. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 18.3 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 18.1PPR points · typical if he plays 18.3
SEASeattle SeahawksJaxon Smith-Njigba
Most weeks, Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores between 7.7 and 30.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 18.1. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 18.1 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (5.9, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.8PPR points · typical if he plays 18.1
DETDetroit LionsJahmyr Gibbs
Most weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs scores between 7.8 and 30.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 18.1. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 18.1 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on this week's report yet · DET had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.8PPR points · typical if he plays 18.1
DETDetroit LionsJared Goff
Most weeks, Jared Goff scores between 8.0 and 28.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 18.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 18.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on this week's report yet · DET had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.7PPR points · typical if he plays 18.0
Most weeks, Matthew Stafford scores between 7.9 and 27.9 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 18.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 18.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.9PPR points · typical if he plays 18.0
JAXJacksonville JaguarsTrevor Lawrence
Most weeks, Trevor Lawrence scores between 7.3 and 28.9 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 17.8. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 17.8 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 8 game (Nov 1)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.5PPR points · typical if he plays 17.8
Most weeks, Kenneth Walker III scores between 7.7 and 31.1 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 17.7. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 17.7 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.4PPR points · typical if he plays 17.7
BALBaltimore RavensDerrick Henry
Most weeks, Derrick Henry scores between 7.7 and 30.7 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 17.7. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 17.7 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.4PPR points · typical if he plays 17.7
CINCincinnati BengalsJoe Burrow
Most weeks, Joe Burrow scores between 7.7 and 29.2 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 17.6. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 17.6 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on this week's report yet · CIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.3PPR points · typical if he plays 17.6
Most weeks, Christian McCaffrey scores between 7.2 and 28.3 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 17.3. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 17.3 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 19)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 17.0PPR points · typical if he plays 17.3
NONew Orleans SaintsChris Olave
Most weeks, Chris Olave scores between 6.7 and 27.9 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 17.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 17.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (5.6, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 16.6PPR points · typical if he plays 17.0
Most weeks, Patrick Mahomes scores between 7.0 and 28.9 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.9. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3% chance of missing) × typical 16.9 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 16.5PPR points · typical if he plays 16.9
Most weeks, Jaylen Warren scores between 7.8 and 30.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.9. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 16.9 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 16.7PPR points · typical if he plays 16.9
NONew Orleans SaintsTyler Shough
Most weeks, Tyler Shough scores between 7.2 and 26.8 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.8. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 16.8 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 16.6PPR points · typical if he plays 16.8
DALDallas CowboysDak Prescott
Most weeks, Dak Prescott scores between 7.2 and 28.0 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.7. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 16.7 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 16.6PPR points · typical if he plays 16.7
BUFBuffalo BillsJosh Allen
Most weeks, Josh Allen scores between 8.1 and 29.5 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.6. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 16.6 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 16.4PPR points · typical if he plays 16.6
CARCarolina PanthersBryce Young
Most weeks, Bryce Young scores between 6.5 and 29.2 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.5. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 16.5 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 16.4PPR points · typical if he plays 16.5
GBGreen Bay PackersJordan Love
Most weeks, Jordan Love scores between 6.3 and 26.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.3. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3% chance of missing) × typical 16.3 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.9PPR points · typical if he plays 16.3
Most weeks, Jayden Daniels scores between 6.1 and 25.3 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.1. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 16.1 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 19)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.8PPR points · typical if he plays 16.1
Most weeks, Jacoby Brissett scores between 6.4 and 26.7 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.1. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 16.1 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.9PPR points · typical if he plays 16.1
PITPittsburgh SteelersAaron Rodgers
Most weeks, Aaron Rodgers scores between 6.1 and 26.8 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 16.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 16.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.8PPR points · typical if he plays 16.0
Most weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson scores between 6.3 and 27.8 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.9. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 15.9 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on this week's report yet · Week 5 report: Questionable, Limited practice (Knee)
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.5PPR points · typical if he plays 15.9
BALBaltimore RavensZay Flowers
Most weeks, Zay Flowers scores between 6.2 and 26.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.9. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 15.9 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (4.9, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.5PPR points · typical if he plays 15.9
CHIChicago BearsCaleb Williams
Most weeks, Caleb Williams scores between 3.0 and 28.3 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.8. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 9% chance of missing) × typical 15.8 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 14.4PPR points · typical if he plays 15.8
HOUHouston TexansC.J. Stroud
Most weeks, C.J. Stroud scores between 6.4 and 26.5 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.7. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 4% chance of missing) × typical 15.7 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.1PPR points · typical if he plays 15.7
Most weeks, Chase Brown scores between 6.7 and 28.0 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.7. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 4% chance of missing) × typical 15.7 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on this week's report yet · CIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.0PPR points · typical if he plays 15.7
LVLas Vegas RaidersKirk Cousins
Most weeks, Kirk Cousins scores between 6.1 and 26.1 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.6. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 7% chance of missing) × typical 15.6 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 14.4PPR points · typical if he plays 15.6
Most weeks, Parker Washington scores between 5.4 and 27.3 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.5. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3% chance of missing) × typical 15.5 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 8 game (Nov 1)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.1PPR points · typical if he plays 15.5
Most weeks, Jalen Hurts scores between 5.8 and 25.9 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.4. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 15.4 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.2PPR points · typical if he plays 15.4
Most weeks, Ashton Jeanty scores between 6.2 and 25.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.4. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 18% chance of missing) × typical 15.4 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 12.7PPR points · typical if he plays 15.4
Most weeks, Amon-Ra St. Brown scores between 6.5 and 28.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.2. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 15.2 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (6.3, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Report: not on this week's report yet · DET had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 15.0PPR points · typical if he plays 15.2
BALBaltimore RavensLamar Jackson
Most weeks, Lamar Jackson scores between 3.1 and 24.0 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 60% chance of missing) × typical 15.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 60% chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted: 6.0PPR points · typical if he plays 15.0
Most weeks, Jonathan Taylor scores between 6.2 and 26.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 15.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3% chance of missing) × typical 15.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 14.5PPR points · typical if he plays 15.0
Most weeks, Kyren Williams scores between 6.2 and 28.5 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.9. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 14.9 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 14.5PPR points · typical if he plays 14.9
HOUHouston TexansNico Collins
Most weeks, Nico Collins scores between 5.6 and 26.0 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.6. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 5% chance of missing) × typical 14.6 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.9PPR points · typical if he plays 14.6
LACLos Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert
Most weeks, Justin Herbert scores between 5.4 and 24.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.3. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 14.3 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 14.2PPR points · typical if he plays 14.3
NYGNew York GiantsJameis Winston
Most weeks, Jameis Winston scores between 1.9 and 25.8 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.2. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 9% chance of missing) × typical 14.2 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 12.9PPR points · typical if he plays 14.2
Most weeks, Deshaun Watson scores between 5.3 and 24.5 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.1. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 14.1 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.9PPR points · typical if he plays 14.1
Most weeks, Cam Ward scores between 5.4 and 24.5 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.1. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 14.1 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 14.0PPR points · typical if he plays 14.1
NYJNew York JetsGeno Smith
Most weeks, Geno Smith scores between 5.1 and 24.5 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 1% chance of missing) × typical 14.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.9PPR points · typical if he plays 14.0
DALDallas CowboysJavonte Williams
Most weeks, Javonte Williams scores between 5.0 and 26.3 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 14.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.8PPR points · typical if he plays 14.0
LALos Angeles RamsDavante Adams
Most weeks, Davante Adams scores between 4.6 and 27.1 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 14.0. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3% chance of missing) × typical 14.0 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (4.1, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
WR
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.5PPR points · typical if he plays 14.0
Most weeks, James Cook scores between 5.0 and 25.8 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 13.9. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 13.9 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
RB
Report: not on report
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.7PPR points · typical if he plays 13.9
MINMinnesota VikingsKyler Murray
Most weeks, Kyler Murray scores between 5.3 and 24.3 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 13.9. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3% chance of missing) × typical 13.9 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Report: not on this week's report yet · MIN had a bye in Week 6, so there is no Week 6 report
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.5PPR points · typical if he plays 13.9
Most weeks, Michael Penix Jr. scores between 4.8 and 23.4 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 13.8. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 3% chance of missing) × typical 13.8 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
QB
Week 6 report: Full practice
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 13.4PPR points · typical if he plays 13.8
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