Rules-based guide, not a validated prediction and not betting advice. Lineup call: Bench or hold if listed Out or Doubtful, or chance of missing at least 75%; Have a backup ready at 50% to 75%; otherwise Start with caution if chance of missing is 25% or more, he did not practice or was limited, he has the returning-from-injury flag, or his typical (median) fantasy points rank below the top 50% of players at his position with a range this update; Bench or hold if that rank is in the bottom 25% and he is not a QB; Start otherwise. Next man up is named when chance of missing is 25% or more. Ranges assume he plays. Every sentence is filled from the sourced fields elsewhere on this page.
Lineup call
Have a backup ready · Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Lineup tier: Sit (No. 91 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
Why: 62% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 19); practice: Did not practice (DNP); typical 9.8 PPR points ranks 28 of 157 WRs with a range this update.
Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Lineup tier: Sit · No. 91 WR by risk-adjusted points (3.8 PPR)
62% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 19).
Likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 19), if he plays: 2.4 to 21.9 PPR points.
Next man up: Dyami Brown (41% of snaps over the last 3 team games).
Team impact
If he sits, about 13% of the Washington Commanders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others. Usage impact 8.2 (High) is that share times his 62% chance of missing.
If he sits, the Washington Commanders replace a starter who plays 43% of snaps; his next man up Dyami Brown has 1,743 career regular-season snaps vs his 8,690. Role impact 10.7 (High).
If he sits: Antonio Williams offense snaps 59% → 69%; Treylon Burks offense snaps 56% → 65%.
Roster status: Week 5 INA (nflverse weekly rosters).
Injury reports this season: Week 5 Out, Did not practice (DNP) (Hamstring); Week 6 Did not practice (DNP).
We have no return timeline or medical detail beyond the listed report.
Games without a snap while on the Washington Commanders roster: Week 5 (of 5 team games).
How long could he be out?
He was listed Out (Hamstring) on the Week 5 report, his latest with a game status (none yet for Week 6). Of 995 times a player was listed Out with a hamstring injury (2014–2025 regular seasons), 0% missed no games, 32% missed 1 game, 26% missed 2 games, 42% missed 3 or more in a row; median 2 games. This is history, not a prognosis for him.
Held-out check: shares from 2014–2021 were within 3 points of what happened in 2022–2025 for this group.
Counts consecutive team games missed (0 offensive and 0 defensive snaps, or inactive or on a reserve list) starting with the game the listing was for; byes are skipped; runs cut short by the end of the season or a roster move are kept only if they had reached 3 games. Groups: status and body part, then status and position group, then status, whichever first has at least 30 past listings. nflverse injury reports, snap counts and weekly rosters, 2014–2025. No medical detail and no return timeline.
Similar past cases: median 2 games missed in a row.
History, not a prognosis.
Missed no games0%
Missed 1 game32%
Missed 2 games26%
Missed 3 or more42%
Next man up if he sits: Dyami Brown, likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 19), if he plays: 0.0 to 12.4 PPR points.
Stefon Diggs
New team: on the NE roster in 2025 (last listed Week 22) and the WAS roster in 2026 (nflverse weekly rosters).
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 1,738 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 3,528 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 13% of the Washington Commanders offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Washington Commanders replace a starter who plays 43% of offense snaps; his backup Dyami Brown has played 41% over the same games.
WR
WAS · Washington Commanders New team
62%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Week 6 report: Did not practice (DNP)
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → DNP in Week 6; similar players missed 73% of games (2022–25).
Usage impact ⓘ8.2HighHigh
Role impact ⓘ10.7HighHigh
If he sits, teammates gain
Chance of missing: Frozen availability model (2026 blind test), prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage shift: Frozen usage-redistribution model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Status: nflverse injury report data (CC-BY-4.0), retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage impact: Share: nflverse player stats (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points). Role impact: Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Impact scores are small points on a fixed scale: his share of team usage (or role weight) times his chance of missing. High means the top 5% of 2017–2021 player-seasons, Medium the top 20%. The bold High badge appears only when a score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%: 32 of 167 listed players this update.
Antonio WilliamsWR · offense snaps59% → 69%+10
Treylon BurksWR · offense snaps56% → 65%+9
How the estimate changed
Why: the nflverse injury file has not changed since Oct 16, 2026 02:15 AM ET (same SHA-256 in the last 8 captures), and no nflverse input this model reads has changed since Oct 16, 2026 10:16 AM ET. nflverse posts injury updates about once a day, usually overnight, so the estimate moves when that file does. Source: manifest_live.jsonl.
No change yet: 62% in all 19 updates (Oct 15, 2026 06:15 AM ET to Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET).
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Most weeks, Stefon Diggs scores between 2.4 and 21.9 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 9.8. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 62% chance of missing) × typical 9.8 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (4.0, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 62% chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted: 3.8PPR points · typical if he plays 9.8
Team contribution range: Week 6 game (Oct 19)
Most weeks, Stefon Diggs adds between 0.0 and 7.8 catches. The projected middle is about 4.0.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = 10th percentile, projected = the middle outcome (median, dotted line), high = 90th percentile; a solid dot marks the actual result once the game is graded. The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Sources: frozen range-of-outcomes yards model; frozen team-contribution unit models (fit on 2014–2025, beat a trailing 8-game baseline on held-out seasons). Prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 62% chance of missing.
Receiving plus rushing yards: usually 13.2 to 105.8, projected about 42.2.
Teammates who gain if he sits
Antonio Williams
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
offense snaps: 59% → 69%
Treylon Burks
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
offense snaps: 56% → 65%
Next man up
Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Dyami Brown (WR): 41% of snaps (average of the last 3 team games) and 1,743 career snaps, versus Stefon Diggs at 43% over the same 3 games and 8,690 career snaps. That drop-off drives the role-impact score of 10.7 (High).
Other Washington Commanders players we track
Page built Oct 16, 2026 05:48 PM ET from prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET; injury report retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.