Sam Darnold injury status QB · SEA · Seattle Seahawks
Will Sam Darnold play? Fantasy outlook
Rules-based guide, not a validated prediction and not betting advice. Lineup call: Bench or hold if listed Out or Doubtful, or chance of missing at least 75%; Have a backup ready at 50% to 75%; otherwise Start with caution if chance of missing is 25% or more, he did not practice or was limited, he has the returning-from-injury flag, or his typical (median) fantasy points rank below the top 50% of players at his position with a range this update; Bench or hold if that rank is in the bottom 25% and he is not a QB; Start otherwise. Next man up is named when chance of missing is 25% or more. Ranges assume he plays. Every sentence is filled from the sourced fields elsewhere on this page.
Lineup call
Start · Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Lineup tier: Sit (No. 30 of 64 QBs by risk-adjusted points; top 12 Start, next 6 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
Why: 2% chance of missing his Week 7 game (Oct 25); typical 12.7 PPR points ranks 30 of 64 QBs with a range this update.
Rule that fired: chance of missing under 25%, no practice limit or return flag, typical points in the top half of QBs → Start. A simple rule, not a model.
Lineup tier: Sit · No. 30 QB by risk-adjusted points (12.4 PPR)
2% chance of missing his Week 7 game (Oct 25).
Likely range for his Week 7 game (Oct 25), if he plays: 4.1 to 23.6 PPR points.
Team impact
If he sits, about 100% of the Seattle Seahawks offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others. Usage impact 2.1 (Medium) is that share times his 2% chance of missing.
If he sits, the Seattle Seahawks replace a starter who plays 100% of snaps; his next man up Drew Lock has 1,994 career regular-season snaps vs his 6,083. Role impact 1.8 (Medium).
Roster status: Week 2 INA (nflverse weekly rosters).
Injury reports this season: Week 2 Out, Did not practice (DNP) (Glute); Week 3 Full practice.
We have no return timeline or medical detail beyond the listed report.
Games without a snap while on the Seattle Seahawks roster: Week 2 (of 6 team games).
How long could he be out?
Does not apply: his chance of missing is 2%, below the 25% level where we show this, and he is not listed Out or Doubtful for Week 6.
Sam Darnold
If he sits, about 100% of the Seattle Seahawks offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Seattle Seahawks replace a starter who plays 100% of offense snaps; his backup Drew Lock has played 0% over the same games.
Chance of missing: Frozen availability model (2026 blind test), prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET. Status: nflverse injury report data (CC-BY-4.0), retrieved Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET. Usage impact: Share: nflverse player stats (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points). Role impact: Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Impact scores are small points on a fixed scale: his share of team usage (or role weight) times his chance of missing. High means the top 5% of 2017–2021 player-seasons, Medium the top 20%. The bold High badge appears only when a score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%: 32 of 167 listed players this update.
QB
SEA · Seattle Seahawks
2%chance of missing Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Report: not on report
Usage impact ⓘ2.1 · Medium
Role impact ⓘ1.8 · Medium
How the estimate changed
Chance of missing across 20 updates, Oct 15, 2026 06:15 AM ET to Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET.
Start 2%low 2% · high 2%Now 2%
Likely range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Most weeks, Sam Darnold scores between 4.1 and 23.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 12.7. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 2% chance of missing) × typical 12.7 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard are off for him: we have no receptions estimate for this same game, and we do not invent one. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
If he plays
Risk-adjusted: 12.4PPR points · typical if he plays 12.7
Team contribution range: Week 7 game (Oct 25)
Most weeks, Sam Darnold adds between 82 and 295 passing yards. The projected middle is about 186.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = 10th percentile, projected = the middle outcome (median, dotted line), high = 90th percentile; a solid dot marks the actual result once the game is graded. The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Sources: frozen range-of-outcomes yards model; frozen team-contribution unit models (fit on 2014–2025, beat a trailing 8-game baseline on held-out seasons). Prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET.
If he plays
Rushing yards (from the yards model, which counts rushing plus receiving yards): usually 0.0 to 25.1, projected about 5.0.
Teammates who gain if he sits
No usage-shift scenario this update. Usage-shift scenarios cover receivers, tight ends and running backs only; quarterback changes are not modeled.
Next man up
Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 06:22 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Drew Lock (QB): 0% of snaps (average of the last 3 team games) and 1,994 career snaps, versus Sam Darnold at 100% over the same 3 games and 6,083 career snaps. That drop-off drives the role-impact score of 1.8 (Medium).
In the news
Headlines and links only, last 7 days, matched by player name and team. Via the GDELT Project (gdeltproject.org); headlines belong to their publishers and are not reviewed or endorsed by us. Betting and promo outlets are excluded. Updated Oct 16, 2026 06:00 PM ET.