Rules-based guide, not a validated prediction and not betting advice. Lineup call: Bench or hold if listed Out or Doubtful, or chance of missing at least 75%; Have a backup ready at 50% to 75%; otherwise Start with caution if chance of missing is 25% or more, he did not practice or was limited, he has the returning-from-injury flag, or his typical (median) fantasy points rank below the top 50% of players at his position with a range this update; Bench or hold if that rank is in the bottom 25% and he is not a QB; Start otherwise. Next man up is named when chance of missing is 25% or more. Ranges assume he plays. Every sentence is filled from the sourced fields elsewhere on this page.
Lineup call
Have a backup ready · Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Lineup tier: Sit (No. 78 of 157 WRs by risk-adjusted points; top 24 Start, next 12 Flex/borderline, rest Sit). Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
Why: 53% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 18); practice: Limited practice; returning-from-injury flag; typical 9.6 PPR points ranks 29 of 157 WRs with a range this update.
Rule that fired: chance of missing 50%–75% → Have a backup ready. A simple rule, not a model.
Lineup tier: Sit · No. 78 WR by risk-adjusted points (4.6 PPR)
53% chance of missing his Week 6 game (Oct 18).
Likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 18), if he plays: 1.9 to 20.6 PPR points.
Next man up: Darius Cooper (65% of snaps over the last 3 team games).
Team impact
If he sits, about 18% of the Philadelphia Eagles offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others. Usage impact 9.6 (High) is that share times his 53% chance of missing.
If he sits, the Philadelphia Eagles replace a starter who plays 29% of snaps; his next man up Darius Cooper has 364 career regular-season snaps vs his 4,900. Role impact 7.1 (High).
If he sits: Elijah Moore offense snaps 16% → 25%; Marquise Brown offense snaps 54% → 60%; Britain Covey offense snaps 21% → 26%.
Injury reports this season: Week 3 Full practice; Week 4 Out, Did not practice (DNP) (Hamstring); Week 5 Out, Did not practice (DNP) (Hamstring); Week 6 Limited practice.
We have no return timeline or medical detail beyond the listed report.
Games without a snap while on the Philadelphia Eagles roster: Week 4, Week 5 (of 5 team games).
How long could he be out?
He was listed Out (Hamstring) on the Week 5 report, his latest with a game status (none yet for Week 6). Of 995 times a player was listed Out with a hamstring injury (2014–2025 regular seasons), 0% missed no games, 32% missed 1 game, 26% missed 2 games, 42% missed 3 or more in a row; median 2 games. This is history, not a prognosis for him.
Held-out check: shares from 2014–2021 were within 3 points of what happened in 2022–2025 for this group.
Counts consecutive team games missed (0 offensive and 0 defensive snaps, or inactive or on a reserve list) starting with the game the listing was for; byes are skipped; runs cut short by the end of the season or a roster move are kept only if they had reached 3 games. Groups: status and body part, then status and position group, then status, whichever first has at least 30 past listings. nflverse injury reports, snap counts and weekly rosters, 2014–2025. No medical detail and no return timeline.
Similar past cases: median 2 games missed in a row.
History, not a prognosis.
Missed no games0%
Missed 1 game32%
Missed 2 games26%
Missed 3 or more42%
Next man up if he sits: Darius Cooper, likely range for his Week 6 game (Oct 18), if he plays: 1.0 to 15.2 PPR points.
DeVonta Smith
Practice trend: nflverse has one end-of-week practice status per player-week, not daily Wed/Thu/Fri reports, so this compares last game week's final status with this week's; we have not tested it on midweek reports. 870 past cases in 2022–2025 with this sequence (regular players with at least 20% snap share; 1,804 more in 2014–2021). It is context only: the chance of missing above comes from the frozen model. From our held-out research on 2014–2025 nflverse data.
If he sits, about 18% of the Philadelphia Eagles offense (his share of plays over the last 3 team games) shifts to others.
If he sits, the Philadelphia Eagles replace a starter who plays 29% of offense snaps; his backup Darius Cooper has played 65% over the same games.
WR
PHI · Philadelphia Eagles
53%chance of missing Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Week 6 report: Limited practice
Practice trend (end-of-week reports): DNP in Week 5 → Limited in Week 6; similar players missed 50% of games (2022–25).
Returning from injury: limited in practice (snap comparison n/a)
Usage impact ⓘ9.6HighHigh
Role impact ⓘ7.1HighHigh
If he sits, teammates gain
Chance of missing: Frozen availability model (2026 blind test), prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage shift: Frozen usage-redistribution model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Status: nflverse injury report data (CC-BY-4.0), retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET. Usage impact: Share: nflverse player stats (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points). Role impact: Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Impact scores are small points on a fixed scale: his share of team usage (or role weight) times his chance of missing. High means the top 5% of 2017–2021 player-seasons, Medium the top 20%. The bold High badge appears only when a score is High and his chance of missing is at least 25%: 32 of 167 listed players this update.
Elijah MooreWR · offense snaps16% → 25%+10
Marquise BrownWR · offense snaps54% → 60%+6
Britain CoveyWR · offense snaps21% → 26%+5
How the estimate changed
Why: the nflverse injury file has not changed since Oct 16, 2026 02:15 AM ET (same SHA-256 in the last 8 captures), and no nflverse input this model reads has changed since Oct 16, 2026 10:16 AM ET. nflverse posts injury updates about once a day, usually overnight, so the estimate moves when that file does. Source: manifest_live.jsonl.
No change yet: 53% in all 19 updates (Oct 15, 2026 06:15 AM ET to Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET).
Likely range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Most weeks, DeVonta Smith scores between 1.9 and 20.6 fantasy points (PPR). His most likely outcome is about 9.6. The taller the curve, the more likely that score.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted = (1 − 53% chance of missing) × typical 9.6 PPR points. A simple expected value: a missed game counts as 0 and partial games are ignored. Half-PPR and Standard subtract 0.5× and 1× his median receptions (4.2, team-contribution model) from the typical points: an approximation, since a median minus a median is not exactly the median of the difference. Use with your usual rankings; this tier adds injury risk, it does not beat expert rankings in our tests (2022–2025).
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 53% chance of missing.
Risk-adjusted: 4.6PPR points · typical if he plays 9.6
Team contribution range: Week 6 game (Oct 18)
Most weeks, DeVonta Smith adds between 0.0 and 7.3 catches. The projected middle is about 4.2.
How to read it ⓘA wide curve means a boom-or-bust week; a narrow one means a steadier floor.
80% range: low = 10th percentile, projected = the middle outcome (median, dotted line), high = 90th percentile; a solid dot marks the actual result once the game is graded. The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Sources: frozen range-of-outcomes yards model; frozen team-contribution unit models (fit on 2014–2025, beat a trailing 8-game baseline on held-out seasons). Prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET.
If he plays
Assumes he plays. These ranges come from models fit only on games players actually played; so they do not account for his 53% chance of missing.
Receiving plus rushing yards: usually 12.6 to 106.2, projected about 41.5.
Teammates who gain if he sits
Elijah Moore
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
offense snaps: 16% → 25%
Marquise Brown
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
offense snaps: 54% → 60%
Britain Covey
80% range: low = the score he tops 9 weeks in 10 (10th percentile), typical = the middle outcome (median), high = the score he tops only 1 week in 10 (90th percentile). The curve is drawn through these three points for illustration only; its shape is not a modeled distribution. The range assumes the player plays (fit on played games only). Frozen range-of-outcomes model, prediction log update Oct 16, 2026 04:22 PM ET, re-scored for the same game as the chance of missing.
WR
offense snaps: 21% → 26%
Next man up
Snaps: nflverse snap counts (CC-BY-4.0), last 3 team games, retrieved Oct 16, 2026 04:23 PM ET; starter = top 2026 season snap share in his position group (no 2026 depth chart captured); backup experience = career regular-season snaps in nflverse snap counts; tiers fixed from 2017-2021 history (High at least 3.7, Medium at least 0.7 points).
Darius Cooper (WR): 65% of snaps (average of the last 3 team games) and 364 career snaps, versus DeVonta Smith at 29% over the same 3 games and 4,900 career snaps. That drop-off drives the role-impact score of 7.1 (High).
In the news
Headlines and links only, last 7 days, matched by player name and team. Via the GDELT Project (gdeltproject.org); headlines belong to their publishers and are not reviewed or endorsed by us. Betting and promo outlets are excluded. Updated Oct 16, 2026 04:15 PM ET.